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Metaculus
...Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance....
https://www.metaculus.com/
Metaculus FAQ
...Frequently asked questions about Metaculus, including basics, question types, resolution processes, predictions, scoring, and more....
https://www.metaculus.com/faq/
When Will the First General AI Be Announced? - metaculus.com
...My Prediction (previous) is a feature on the site already, you just have to click "Overlay Current Forecast" on the top right of any graph. I don't know if API users are affected in any major way....
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
ACX 2026 Prediction Contest - metaculus.com
...We will also reveal Community Predictions at that time. While you are encouraged to continue updating your predictions throughout the year, forecasts made after January 17th will only affect site leaderboards, not contest rankings....
https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2026/
Q2 AI Benchmark Results - metaculus.com
...Testing against the community prediction usually involves evaluating your bot?s expected score on questions while assuming the site?s community prediction is the true probability. Only 1 participant said they ?Used a fine-tuned LLM for prediction? as one of their actual forecasting strategies....
https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/40456/q2-ai-benchmark-results/
Q1 AI Benchmarking Results - metaculus.com
...Consequently, the cup team's prediction ends up being essentially the Community Prediction, just without applying recency weighting as is normally done on the site (i.e. only everyone's last forecast before Community Prediction reveal time is used, and these are all weighted the same). Here is the list of bots that made the team for this ......
https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/38673/q1-ai-benchmarking-results/
Question Feed | Metaculus
...Explore a diverse range of forecasting questions on Metaculus, covering global issues, scientific breakthroughs, and future events....
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/
The State of Metaculus
...The Metaculus of early 2025 is a different and better place in myriad ways than the Metaculus of a year ago. It can be easy to miss some of these changes and also some of the opportunities ? to sharpen thinking (yours and others'), to win prizes and job opportunities, and to contribute to public sense-making in turbulent times....
https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/34747/the-state-of-metaculus/
FutureEval Bot Tournament Resources Page - metaculus.com
...Some questions will be synced with the main Metaculus site to compare bot performance against the community prediction. Other questions will be shared with Pro forecasters to allow for a Pro forecaster comparison. Questions will consist of a mix of binary, numeric, discrete (a version of numeric), and multiple-choice formats....
https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/38928/metaculus-ai-forecasting-benchmark-resources-page/
Announcing the Million Predictions Hackathon! - metaculus.com
...hackathon Metaculus recently achieved a big milestone: 1,000,000 predictions on over 7,000 questions! We're celebrating by inviting you to participate in the The Million Predictions Hackathon from December 3rd through 11th! This virtual hackathon is an opportunity to advance forecasting science and sharpen our community's aggregate forecasts with insights extracted from Metaculus's rich ......
https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/13508/announcing-the-million-predictions-hackathon/
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